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Internal Palestinian tensions could threaten Palestinian Authority

The Palestinian unity government that was meant to put an end to the long-time rivalry between the Islamist Hamas movement, which controls Gaza, and the Fatah movement, in charge in the West Bank, has expired, say Hamas leaders.
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December 4, 2014

This story originally appeared on themedialine.org.

The Palestinian unity government that was meant to put an end to the long-time rivalry between the Islamist Hamas movement, which controls Gaza, and the Fatah movement, in charge in the West Bank, has expired, say Hamas leaders. That government was meant to present a unified Palestinian front, and dispel Israel’s argument that there is no need to resume peace talks because any deal Israel strikes with Fatah would not be honored by Hamas, which the US and Israel see as a terrorist organization.

With Israeli-Palestinian peace talks frozen and a wave of attacks against Israelis hardening attitudes, as well as Israel’s announcement this week that it will hold new elections in March, Palestinians are angry that their drive toward an independent state seems to be stagnating. In addition, little has been done to rebuild the Gaza Strip, after hundreds of Israeli air strikes caused widespread damage to thousands of homes in Gaza during last summer’s fighting between Israel and Hamas.

“Unfortunately, the Palestinians are very unhappy with the status quo and the next wave of violence could be directed at the PA before it is directed at Israel,” Fadi Elsalameen, adjunct senior fellow at the American Security Project, a Washington DC think tank, told The Media Line.

Partly because of the fighting in Gaza, the unity government, announced after months of negotiations, failed to act effectively. Israel did not allow members of the government to travel from Gaza to the West Bank, although Palestinian Prime Minister Rami Hamdallah did visit Gaza. The current status of the government is not clear, with Hamas saying that the six-month-term of the government has expired, while Fatah officials say it is still in place.

Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas says he intends to ask the United Nations security council to recognize Palestine, following the 2012 decision to see Palestine as a non-member observer state, similar to the Vatican. But Elsalameen says that whatever victory Abbas secures at the UN will be only symbolic.

“The U.S. has tremendous leverage over Israel, therefore, you need the U.S. to buy into any UN step for it to be implemented on the ground. Abbas doesn't have that. He is maneuvering on the international stage to show the Palestinians he is achieving something for them politically,” he said.

Palestinian journalist Maath Musleh says that despite the 2012 decision the PA cannot claim any achievements.

“They try to exaggerate, about Palestine being voted as a non-member observer state,  but that does not change things on the ground , for the people, it’s going to the worse,” he told The Media Line.

Elsalameen fears that the Palestinians are headed towards violent future and that Palestinians consider Abbas to be a weak leader.

“This weakness includes security coordination with Israelis and inability to provide jobs, proper health care, education, and proper security for the Palestinians,” he said. The next wave of violence will be due to all of the above and Abbas will have to face reality then,” he said.

Other Palestinian analysts say that Abbas feared the unity government would make him be seen as illegitimate by the international community.

“Fatah doesn’t have any incentive to create a national unity government because it knows that by unity with Hamas, they will subject themselves to the international boycott,” Emilio Dabed, the head of the international law and human rights program at Al Quds Bard Honors College for Liberal Arts and Science told The Media Line.

Much of the International community, including the United States, view Hamas as a terrorist organization.

In October, a Norwegian-sponsored donor conference was held in Cairo where 5 billion dollars was raised towards the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip. The formation of a national consensus government of technocrats, led by Palestinian Prime minister Rami Hamdallah, was supposed to receive the money to rebuild Gaza along with the United Nations. Dabed says the design of the reconstruction mechanism gave Israel “a very dangerous power of control and surveillance where everyone applying for a house is on a list and  Israel has veto power.”

The recent break-up of the two Palestinian factions jeapordizes these reconstruction efforts.

“How can you have a national unity government without having a united political strategy?” Dabed, also a political scientist and lawyer, asked.

Elsameen agrees that the dissolution of the unity government is bad news for those in Gaza whose homes were damaged or destroyed.

“The reconstruction of Gaza is a casualty of the Fatah – Hamas disagreements. No one wants to send money to Hamas but no one trusts Fatah not to steal it. But who is paying the price? The people,” Elsalameen said.

Musleh, who has covered the internal situation since Hamas triumphed over Fatah in 2006 legislative elections says the reconstruction process is about who wins over the public.

“It’s about getting credit for the reconstruction of Gaza and the lifting of the siege – number one and secondly, it’s about Hamas and Fatah trying to empower loyalists,” he said.

Hamas did not respond to any of the The Media Line’s requests for a comment.

Fatah member and former PA Minister of Economy, Trade and Labor agrees that the two parties have put obstacles in the way of reconciliation. Saadi Al Krunz says that the agreement was not specific enough from the start and believes that it will take a long time to establish trust, but that “whatever the disagreements the people of Gaza cannot be left alone.”

“We have no choice but to continue in this path to complete reconciliation and to go for elections, presidential and legislative,” he told The Media Line. “The people of Gaza deserve better.”

Abu Dis resident Osama Ibrahim confidently says there will never be Palestinian unity. “The two parties are only looking after their own interests,” he told The Media Line. He thinks there will be elections but not the way that was conducted in 2006.  “Elections will only be held in the West Bank,” he said

Dabed says it could happen but Fatah would not risk it.

“In practical terms, yes, it can take place but it will be a political disaster and a mistake because it would legitimize the division (between Fatah and Hamas),” he said.

He says Fatah is worried that it would lose votes to Hamas following this summer’s war in Gaza. The ratings of the Islamists went up as they were seen as “fighting the occupation” while Abbas was viewed by the people as taking a more quiet role.

“What you can expect from these dynamics is a progressive decrease in Fatah’s legitimacy and popularity and increase in dissent and therefore an increase in authoritarianism,” Dabed added.

Musleh says as long as the PA continues to pay salaries, there will be no violence against the Palestinian Authority.

Gaza-based security analyst Hani Al Basoos agrees that the territories will not witness Palestinian-Palestinian bloodshed as Gaza did in 2007, when Fatah and Hamas fought for control of the Gaza Strip.

“People are frustrated at both parties, but will not protest violently. They may criticize and peacefully protest, but will not repeat the incidents of July 2007,” he told The Media Line.

Meanwhile, Elsalameen says Palestinian elections, backed by the international community, are needed now more than ever so that “whomever comes in to rule the Palestinian people has a strong mandate and is supported both locally and regionally.”

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