Congress’ vote on the Iran deal will be final soon, and the long battle will be over. Those who wanted a different outcome will have to adjust to a new reality. Those supportive of the agreement — if they are not blind, and not all of them are — would be wise to treat this painful process as a warning sign: The agreement has many flaws, and its consequences could come back to haunt its supporters sooner than expected.
There also is the possibility — I think it’s a distant one, but I’m not always right — that the agreement will actually work and that its supporters are the ones who will ultimately prevail. If that happens, opponents of the agreement should be ready to admit error and accept, with satisfaction, a positive outcome.
Some lessons learned (most of them relearned):
Presidents, not Congress, determine foreign policy. We already knew that, but it is good to be reminded of it, and of the fact that Congress doesn’t seem to really want to be more consequential on such matters.
Support for the policies of the president are determined in most cases by party affiliation. Even when profound issues are on the table, and even when members have profound concerns regarding certain policies — and in this case, many Democratic legislators do have profound concerns — very few members of Congress are ready to vote against a president from their own party.
All American policies are presented in such a way as to convince American voters that they are good for Israel. President Barack Obama and his team never said, “This is in the American interest, and we are going to pursue this policy even if it isn’t good for Israel.” They said, “This is good for Israel, too.” So there is still value in at least pretending to pursue policies that are good for the security of Israel. That’s somewhat comforting.
American Jews also engage in the same exercise: Those among them who support the agreement do not say, “We are Americans, and hence we do what’s good for America, irrespective of whether it’s good for Israel.” They convince themselves that what they support is good for both countries. Such a viewpoint makes it much easier to support a policy that most Israelis — and the Israeli government — see as damaging.
Israelis tend to expect too much of American Jews. They get a lot of support from American Jews and should be appreciative of that support, but they realize it has clear limits. In fact, the more profound the issue for America, the less support Israel is going to get — if the positions of the two governments aren’t the same.
Barack Obama still has the ability to communicate with American Jews. He is a master of manipulating American Jewish opinion — not in a bad sense, but rather in a political sense. It is unfortunate, for him and possibly for Israel as well, that he did not try as hard to sway Israelis the same way when he still had a chance to do so.
Israel has a growing problem with the Democratic Party. Some of it is because of Israeli policies and Israel’s lack of care in dealing with the party, but not all of it — it is too easy to make Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu the only culprit responsible for the deteriorating standing of Israel among Democratic voters and legislators. The direction the party has taken under Obama has also contributed to the sense of problematic relations.
Because of Obama and Iran and the vote in Congress, Israel is going to keep its fingers crossed in the next American election for the Republican candidate. This will contribute to the sense of growing alienation between Democrats, Jews included, and Israel.
Netanyahu is a stumbling block for bettering U.S.-Israel relations — his persona and tone makes it much more difficult for many Americans to feel close to Israel. But Americans should realize that many Israelis see the battle he waged against the agreement with Iran as courageous, and that they would regard a less confrontational leader with less respect. Israelis want good relations with the U.S., but they do not want their government to be America’s doormat.
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